India and four other big nations fell below replacement fertility
Births per woman, 2000–2023, in the 20 most populous countries. The dashed line is 2.1, the replacement level.
- 1. The world has already passed peak child
- 2. Japan's median age is more than three times Niger's
- 3. South Korea now has a quarter of its 1971 births
- 4. China's population is projected to more than halve by 2100
- 5. Japan now has over 100,000 centenarians, up from 153
- 6. Japan has 9 million empty homes: one in seven
- 7. More Christians live in sub-Saharan Africa than anywhere else
- 8. Two in three people live where fertility is below replacement
- 9. Japan's births fell below half their 1899 level
- 10. Brazil now has more people over 65 than Germany
- 11. 34 countries and territories are past their population peak
- 12. Chile's fertility rate fell below Italy's and Japan's
- 13. Thailand's births have fallen below its deaths
- 14. Women hold at least half the seats in seven parliaments
- 15. Child marriage in South Asia has nearly halved since 2005
- 16. Argentina's teen birth rate fell 60% in ten years
- 17. Sri Lanka's population has shrunk three years in a row
- 18. Bangladesh's births per woman have fallen by two-thirds since 1970
- 19. China now has more university students than preschoolers
- 20. Uruguay now records more deaths than births
- 21. Kazakhstan's births have fallen by a quarter since 2021
- 22. Thailand is ageing faster than every G7 country but Japan
- 23. 20 of China's 31 provinces have more deaths than births
- 24. Cuba now has more people over 65 than children
- 25. Deaths outnumbered births in 45 countries, up from 20
- 26. Most of East Asia's big cities lost people since 2020
- 27. Since 2000, births fell 10% below peak in 24 countries
- 28. Sub-Saharan Africa added 13 million births a year since 2000
- 29. Karachi doubled to become the world's 11th-biggest city
- 30. Malawi's life expectancy rose 21 years, more than anywhere
- 31. The Mekong Delta got 3% of Viet Nam's population growth
- 32. Iran's largest age group went from under-fives to 35–39
- 33. India and four other big nations fell below replacement fertility
Of the 20 most populous countries, those below 2.1 births per woman: eight in 2000, thirteen in 2023.
The Philippines had the steepest fall of the five that crossed. India went from 3.35 to 1.98.
Still above 2.1 in 2023: Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Egypt and DR Congo.
the numbers & method
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 3.35 | 3.30 | 3.22 | 3.12 | 3.05 | 2.96 | 2.87 | 2.78 | 2.71 | 2.67 | 2.60 | 2.53 | 2.47 | 2.40 | 2.29 | 2.29 | 2.28 | 2.19 | 2.18 | 2.12 | 2.05 | 2.01 | 1.99 | 1.98 |
| China | 1.63 | 1.56 | 1.57 | 1.57 | 1.61 | 1.62 | 1.64 | 1.67 | 1.70 | 1.71 | 1.69 | 1.67 | 1.80 | 1.71 | 1.77 | 1.67 | 1.77 | 1.80 | 1.54 | 1.50 | 1.24 | 1.12 | 1.03 | 1.00 |
| United States | 2.06 | 2.03 | 2.02 | 2.05 | 2.05 | 2.06 | 2.11 | 2.12 | 2.07 | 2.00 | 1.93 | 1.89 | 1.88 | 1.86 | 1.86 | 1.84 | 1.82 | 1.77 | 1.73 | 1.71 | 1.64 | 1.66 | 1.66 | 1.62 |
| Indonesia | 2.50 | 2.47 | 2.44 | 2.41 | 2.42 | 2.45 | 2.46 | 2.48 | 2.44 | 2.44 | 2.46 | 2.52 | 2.51 | 2.44 | 2.39 | 2.35 | 2.31 | 2.25 | 2.22 | 2.21 | 2.19 | 2.17 | 2.15 | 2.13 |
| Pakistan | 5.35 | 5.18 | 5.01 | 4.89 | 4.69 | 4.60 | 4.59 | 4.55 | 4.52 | 4.47 | 4.40 | 4.31 | 4.20 | 4.13 | 4.06 | 3.99 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.86 | 3.81 | 3.77 | 3.72 | 3.66 | 3.61 |
| Nigeria | 6.12 | 6.13 | 6.12 | 6.10 | 6.09 | 6.06 | 6.05 | 6.03 | 6.02 | 5.99 | 5.95 | 5.89 | 5.80 | 5.69 | 5.62 | 5.50 | 5.34 | 5.18 | 5.02 | 4.86 | 4.70 | 4.64 | 4.55 | 4.48 |
| Brazil | 2.25 | 2.16 | 2.08 | 2.01 | 1.97 | 1.94 | 1.90 | 1.85 | 1.82 | 1.80 | 1.79 | 1.78 | 1.77 | 1.76 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.73 | 1.74 | 1.74 | 1.71 | 1.65 | 1.64 | 1.63 | 1.62 |
| Bangladesh | 3.28 | 3.20 | 3.13 | 3.03 | 2.94 | 2.85 | 2.76 | 2.67 | 2.58 | 2.48 | 2.38 | 2.31 | 2.26 | 2.25 | 2.23 | 2.23 | 2.23 | 2.21 | 2.19 | 2.18 | 2.18 | 2.17 | 2.18 | 2.16 |
| Russia | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.29 | 1.32 | 1.34 | 1.29 | 1.31 | 1.42 | 1.50 | 1.54 | 1.57 | 1.58 | 1.69 | 1.71 | 1.75 | 1.78 | 1.76 | 1.62 | 1.58 | 1.50 | 1.51 | 1.51 | 1.42 | 1.41 |
| Ethiopia | 6.65 | 6.58 | 6.50 | 6.40 | 6.30 | 6.19 | 6.05 | 5.89 | 5.70 | 5.49 | 5.28 | 5.08 | 4.89 | 4.71 | 4.61 | 4.53 | 4.47 | 4.40 | 4.37 | 4.35 | 4.27 | 4.18 | 4.08 | 3.99 |
| Mexico | 2.71 | 2.67 | 2.63 | 2.58 | 2.54 | 2.50 | 2.46 | 2.42 | 2.39 | 2.36 | 2.34 | 2.32 | 2.29 | 2.27 | 2.21 | 2.14 | 2.09 | 2.04 | 2.03 | 2.02 | 1.99 | 1.97 | 1.94 | 1.91 |
| Japan | 1.36 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.32 | 1.34 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.41 | 1.43 | 1.42 | 1.45 | 1.44 | 1.43 | 1.42 | 1.36 | 1.33 | 1.30 | 1.26 | 1.20 |
| Egypt | 3.51 | 3.46 | 3.41 | 3.35 | 3.28 | 3.25 | 3.22 | 3.24 | 3.24 | 3.26 | 3.30 | 3.31 | 3.40 | 3.49 | 3.49 | 3.50 | 3.35 | 3.31 | 3.02 | 2.87 | 2.85 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 |
| Philippines | 3.75 | 3.72 | 3.65 | 3.59 | 3.52 | 3.45 | 3.47 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.38 | 3.32 | 3.24 | 3.14 | 3.04 | 2.89 | 2.83 | 2.68 | 2.53 | 2.38 | 2.22 | 2.08 | 1.95 | 1.93 | 1.92 |
| DR Congo | 6.70 | 6.66 | 6.61 | 6.55 | 6.53 | 6.53 | 6.55 | 6.56 | 6.58 | 6.59 | 6.59 | 6.58 | 6.56 | 6.53 | 6.48 | 6.44 | 6.39 | 6.35 | 6.30 | 6.25 | 6.21 | 6.16 | 6.11 | 6.05 |
| Viet Nam | 2.03 | 2.02 | 2.01 | 2.00 | 1.97 | 1.89 | 1.87 | 1.91 | 1.93 | 1.92 | 1.91 | 1.93 | 1.97 | 1.98 | 2.09 | 2.10 | 2.00 | 1.99 | 1.88 | 1.94 | 1.96 | 1.94 | 1.93 | 1.91 |
| Iran | 2.00 | 1.92 | 1.84 | 1.80 | 1.78 | 1.76 | 1.76 | 1.75 | 1.74 | 1.74 | 1.75 | 1.79 | 1.85 | 1.91 | 1.98 | 2.02 | 2.05 | 2.02 | 1.92 | 1.77 | 1.70 | 1.71 | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| Türkiye | 2.49 | 2.39 | 2.27 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.19 | 2.16 | 2.15 | 2.10 | 2.08 | 2.05 | 2.11 | 2.11 | 2.19 | 2.16 | 2.11 | 2.08 | 2.00 | 1.89 | 1.77 | 1.71 | 1.63 | 1.51 |
| Germany | 1.38 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.36 | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.37 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.41 | 1.42 | 1.47 | 1.50 | 1.60 | 1.57 | 1.57 | 1.54 | 1.53 | 1.58 | 1.46 | 1.39 |
| Thailand | 1.73 | 1.71 | 1.69 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.64 | 1.63 | 1.62 | 1.59 | 1.57 | 1.56 | 1.57 | 1.56 | 1.53 | 1.48 | 1.45 | 1.40 | 1.36 | 1.32 | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.21 |
Claim types Estimate
Estimate. Total fertility rate (births per woman), World Bank World Development Indicators series SP.DYN.TFRT.IN, which the World Bank takes mostly from UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 (UN estimates; 2023 is the last estimate year, later years are projections, so the chart stops at 2023). Read via the progrss vault (§4.11, wb-wdi; licence CC BY 4.0). Set: the 20 most populous countries in 2024 by World Bank population (SP.POP.TOTL), chosen before looking at fertility, shown in population order. 2.1 births per woman is the usual approximation of replacement level (lower where child mortality is lower, higher where it is higher). Below 2.1 in 2000: China, United States (2.06), Russia, Japan, Viet Nam (2.03), Iran (2.00), Germany, Thailand. Crossed below by 2023 (yellow): India (3.35 in 2000, first below 2.1 in 2020, 1.98 in 2023), Brazil (2.25, 2002, 1.62), Mexico (2.71, 2016, 1.91), Philippines (3.75, 2020, 1.92), Türkiye (2.49, 2010, 1.51; above 2.1 again in 2012–2016). Iran rose to 2.02–2.05 in 2015–2017 before falling again. The United States was briefly above 2.1 in 2006 (2.11) and 2007 (2.12), and Viet Nam reached exactly 2.10 in 2015; both were below 2.1 in 2000 and 2023. Every box uses the same scale (0 to 7). Counts are progrss calculations. No cause is claimed.
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