Since 2000, births fell 10% below peak in 24 countries
Births 10%+ below each country's prior peak: 71 of 154 countries in 2000, 88 in 2023. UN estimates.
- 1. The world has already passed peak child
- 2. Japan's median age is more than three times Niger's
- 3. South Korea now has a quarter of its 1971 births
- 4. China's population is projected to more than halve by 2100
- 5. Japan now has over 100,000 centenarians, up from 153
- 6. Japan has 9 million empty homes: one in seven
- 7. More Christians live in sub-Saharan Africa than anywhere else
- 8. Two in three people live where fertility is below replacement
- 9. Japan's births fell below half their 1899 level
- 10. Brazil now has more people over 65 than Germany
- 11. 34 countries and territories are past their population peak
- 12. Chile's fertility rate fell below Italy's and Japan's
- 13. Thailand's births have fallen below its deaths
- 14. Women hold at least half the seats in seven parliaments
- 15. Child marriage in South Asia has nearly halved since 2005
- 16. Argentina's teen birth rate fell 60% in ten years
- 17. Sri Lanka's population has shrunk three years in a row
- 18. Bangladesh's births per woman have fallen by two-thirds since 1970
- 19. China now has more university students than preschoolers
- 20. Uruguay now records more deaths than births
- 21. Kazakhstan's births have fallen by a quarter since 2021
- 22. Thailand is ageing faster than every G7 country but Japan
- 23. 20 of China's 31 provinces have more deaths than births
- 24. Cuba now has more people over 65 than children
- 25. Deaths outnumbered births in 45 countries, up from 20
- 26. Most of East Asia's big cities lost people since 2020
- 27. Since 2000, births fell 10% below peak in 24 countries
Countries whose births in 2023 were at least 10% below their peak, up from 71 in 2000: a majority by 2023.
Led by India, down from 29.3 million births in 2001 to 23.2 million; Indonesia, Egypt, Mexico and the Philippines too.
Countries with more births in 2023 than in any earlier year; 33 of them are in Africa, where the world's babies are shifting.
the numbers & method
| Country | Value (%) |
|---|---|
| AFG | 100 |
| AGO | 100 |
| ARE | 100 |
| BEN | 100 |
| BOL | 100 |
| CAF | 100 |
| CIV | 100 |
| CMR | 100 |
| COD | 100 |
| COG | 100 |
| COM | 100 |
| ERI | 100 |
| ETH | 100 |
| GAB | 100 |
| GHA | 100 |
| GIN | 100 |
| GMB | 100 |
| GNB | 100 |
| GNQ | 100 |
| HND | 100 |
| LBR | 100 |
| MDG | 100 |
| MLI | 100 |
| MOZ | 100 |
| MRT | 100 |
| MWI | 100 |
| NAM | 100 |
| NER | 100 |
| NGA | 100 |
| PAK | 100 |
| QAT | 100 |
| RWA | 100 |
| SDN | 100 |
| SEN | 100 |
| SLB | 100 |
| SLE | 100 |
| SOM | 100 |
| TCD | 100 |
| TGO | 100 |
| TZA | 100 |
| UGA | 100 |
| UZB | 100 |
| YEM | 100 |
| ZMB | 100 |
| BDI | 99 |
| BWA | 99 |
| JOR | 99 |
| KEN | 99 |
| PNG | 99 |
| PSE | 98 |
| TJK | 98 |
| AUS | 97 |
| BFA | 97 |
| ISR | 97 |
| PRY | 96 |
| HTI | 95 |
| IRQ | 95 |
| ZAF | 95 |
| ZWE | 95 |
| OMN | 93 |
| TKM | 93 |
| DOM | 92 |
| KHM | 92 |
| NZL | 91 |
| PAN | 91 |
| DJI | 90 |
| GTM | 89 |
| KAZ | 89 |
| SAU | 89 |
| DZA | 87 |
| IDN | 87 |
| KGZ | 87 |
| NIC | 87 |
| EGY | 86 |
| BGD | 85 |
| LSO | 85 |
| LAO | 84 |
| USA | 84 |
| MNG | 83 |
| MEX | 82 |
| ECU | 81 |
| KWT | 81 |
| MAR | 80 |
| MYS | 80 |
| SWZ | 80 |
| IND | 79 |
| LBY | 79 |
| PER | 79 |
| SWE | 79 |
| SYR | 79 |
| TLS | 78 |
| CAN | 77 |
| COL | 77 |
| MMR | 77 |
| SGP | 77 |
| SSD | 77 |
| LKA | 76 |
| NOR | 76 |
| CHE | 75 |
| LBN | 74 |
| FRA | 73 |
| PHL | 72 |
| VNM | 72 |
| TUN | 71 |
| VEN | 71 |
| IRL | 70 |
| NPL | 70 |
| TUR | 70 |
| GBR | 69 |
| NLD | 67 |
| DNK | 66 |
| ARG | 65 |
| BRA | 65 |
| BEL | 64 |
| CRI | 62 |
| PRK | 62 |
| AZE | 59 |
| CHL | 59 |
| AUT | 57 |
| IRN | 56 |
| SLV | 55 |
| URY | 54 |
| DEU | 53 |
| SVK | 52 |
| ESP | 49 |
| JAM | 49 |
| CZE | 47 |
| FIN | 44 |
| RUS | 44 |
| THA | 44 |
| GRC | 42 |
| POL | 41 |
| BGR | 40 |
| GEO | 40 |
| PRT | 40 |
| ARM | 39 |
| SRB | 39 |
| HUN | 38 |
| ITA | 38 |
| ROU | 36 |
| CUB | 35 |
| ALB | 34 |
| LTU | 34 |
| XKX | 34 |
| HRV | 32 |
| MDA | 32 |
| BLR | 31 |
| TWN | 31 |
| JPN | 30 |
| CHN | 27 |
| HKG | 27 |
| UKR | 24 |
| KOR | 22 |
| BIH | 21 |
Claim types Estimate · Interpretation
UN DESA Population Division, World Population Prospects 2024 (revision), total live births, both sexes, annual estimates 1950–2023, read from UN WPP via the progrss vault (§4.11, un-wpp 3 matches/0 mismatches). Estimate: WPP values are model-based estimates blending registration, census and survey data; 2024 onward are medium-variant projections and are not used. Set: the 154 countries and areas with at least 20,000 births in 2023 (smaller places move with a few hundred births; aggregates excluded); the same set is used in 2000 and 2023 and is the same-method control. Counting rule (progrss calculation): births in the year at least 10% below the highest annual births from 1950 up to that year. 2000: 71 of 154. 2023: 88 of 154 (57%). Joined (24): India (peak 2001, 29.32 million; 2023, 23.22 million, -21%), Indonesia (2012 peak, -13%), United States, Bangladesh, Egypt (2015 peak 2.81 million; 2023 2.41 million, -14%), Mexico, Philippines (2010 peak, -28%), Turkey, Colombia, Nepal, Saudi Arabia, Peru, Syria, Argentina, Malaysia, Venezuela, Guatemala, South Sudan, Ecuador, Laos, Nicaragua, Lebanon, Costa Rica, Eswatini. Left (7): Australia, New Zealand, Oman, South Africa, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan (births back within 10% of, or at, a new high). Record: 41 of the 154 had their highest births ever in 2023, 33 of them in Africa (the others: Afghanistan, Honduras, Pakistan, Qatar, Solomon Islands, United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Yemen). Map: 2023 births as % of the 1950–2023 peak. Takeaway 3's last clause is Interpretation.
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