Thailand's births have fallen below its deaths
Live births and deaths per year, thousands, Thailand, 2000 and 2023: UN World Population Prospects 2024 estimates.
The first year Thailand's deaths outnumbered its births in UN estimates: 662,000 deaths against 601,000 births.
Births fell from about 947,000 in 2000 to 591,000 in 2023, while yearly deaths rose by more than half.
More deaths than births in 2023: from here, only migration can stop Thailand's population from shrinking.
the numbers & method
| 2000 (k) | 2023 (k) | |
|---|---|---|
| Births | 947 | 591 |
| Deaths | 403 | 637 |
Claim types Estimate · Interpretation
UN DESA Population Division, World Population Prospects 2024, indicators 57 'Total births' and 60 'Total deaths' (both sexes, calendar year), medium variant, read on the UN Data Portal API (population.un.org/dataportalapi/api/v1, sourceId 27) on 4 Nov 2026. WPP 2024 gives estimates for 1950–2023 and projections from 2024, so the chart stops at 2023. Births / deaths: 2000 946,821 / 402,911; 2010 823,589 / 453,109; 2019 647,680 / 530,844; 2021 612,870 / 555,450; 2022 601,151 / 662,160; 2023 591,200 / 637,306. The 2021–22 jump in deaths includes COVID-19. Thailand's own civil registration counts differ in level from the UN estimates (the UN adjusts registered events for coverage), so the exact crossing year can differ by source (registered counts put the first natural decrease in 2021). The UN medium variant projects deaths above births in every year after 2023 (2024: 581,635 births, 647,349 deaths). Changes and differences are progrss calculations; takeaway 3 is an interpretation. Licence: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Published 4 Nov 2026
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