20 of China's 31 provinces have more deaths than births
Provinces where deaths outnumbered births, of China's 31 mainland provinces, 2010–2024.
- 1. China now builds more ships than everyone else combined
- 2. China makes more electricity than the US and EU combined
- 3. China installs more robots than everyone else combined
- 4. China is building half the world's new reactors
- 5. China switched on 80% of the world's new coal power
- 6. China's vehicle exports grew sevenfold in five years
- 7. Six of the world's ten busiest ports are in China
- 8. China completed six in ten of 2025's new skyscrapers
- 9. China has more metro track than the next six combined
- 10. China refines most of the minerals of the future
- 11. China's new housing starts have fallen 74% since 2019
- 12. China is building more power capacity than everyone else combined
- 13. China now emits more CO2 per person than Japan
- 14. Nearly 20 million Shanghai residents live in a flood zone
- 15. Fewer countries owe China more than the World Bank
- 16. Anhui tripled vehicle output as most of China's hubs shrank
- 17. 20 of China's 31 provinces have more deaths than births
- 18. Emerging economies now take 42% of China's electric car exports
Provinces where deaths outnumbered births in 2024, up from 2 in 2015: Heilongjiang and Liaoning.
Share of China's people living in those 20 provinces, from Jiangsu and Shanghai to Shandong and Sichuan, not only the old northeast.
Provinces with more deaths than births in 2023, the peak; Beijing (+0.01 per 1,000), Yunnan and Fujian edged back above zero in 2024.
the numbers & method
| Year | Provinces with more deaths than births |
|---|---|
| 2010 | 0 |
| 2011 | 1 |
| 2012 | 1 |
| 2013 | 1 |
| 2014 | 0 |
| 2015 | 2 |
| 2016 | 3 |
| 2017 | 2 |
| 2018 | 2 |
| 2019 | 3 |
| 2020 | 7 |
| 2021 | 13 |
| 2022 | 20 |
| 2023 | 23 |
| 2024 | 20 |
Claim types Fact
National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), National Data, birth, death and natural growth rates by province (annual), natural growth rate per 1,000 people, latest period 2024; read from the NBS National Data API via the progrss vault (GUIDELINES §4.11). Count = provinces with a natural growth rate below zero (deaths above births), among the 31 mainland provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities (Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan not included); progrss calculation. Counts by year: 2010 0, 2011–2013 1 (Liaoning), 2014 0, 2015 2, 2016 3, 2017 2, 2018 2, 2019 3, 2020 7, 2021 13, 2022 20, 2023 23, 2024 20. 2024 natural growth rates, per 1,000: Heilongjiang −6.34, Liaoning −5.30, Jilin −4.85, Hubei −3.14, Hunan −3.04, Sichuan −3.02, Chongqing −2.88, Inner Mongolia −2.84, Jiangsu −2.50, Hebei −2.32, Anhui −2.24, Tianjin −1.97, Shandong −1.67, Shanghai −1.53, Shanxi −1.39, Gansu −0.90, Shaanxi −0.69, Jiangxi −0.58, Zhejiang −0.36, Henan −0.11; highest Tibet +8.43, Ningxia +4.52, Guangdong +3.69. Share of people: year-end 2024 resident population of the 20 provinces (1,025.81 million) ÷ the 31-province total (1,406.28 million), NBS resident population by province, progrss calculation. NBS rates come from its annual sample survey on population change. Beijing's 2024 rate, +0.01 per 1,000, is effectively zero; NBS provincial rates are sample-survey estimates, so small year-to-year moves are within noise.
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