Deaths outnumbered births in 45 countries, up from 20

Claim types Estimate · Interpretation

UN DESA Population Division, World Population Prospects 2024 (revision), indicators total deaths and total births (both sexes, annual), read from UN WPP via the progrss vault. 2023 is the last estimate year in this edition; 2024 onward are the UN's medium-variant projections and are not used for the headline. Counting rule: a country is counted when its deaths in the year exceed its births in the same year, among the 215 countries and areas with both series (aggregates excluded). Same countries then and now: 20 of 215 in 2013 (Austria, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Monaco, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Ukraine), 45 of 215 in 2023; all 20 stayed ahead and 25 joined. Countries ahead in 2023 (45, ratio of deaths to births): Ukraine, Monaco, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Puerto Rico, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece, Italy, Bulgaria, Serbia, Taiwan, Estonia, Hungary, South Korea, Germany, Romania, Finland, Hong Kong, Russia, US Virgin Islands, San Marino, Portugal, Spain, Curacao, China, Poland, Moldova, Isle of Man, Czechia, Austria, Slovenia, North Macedonia, Cuba, Dominica, Belgium, Bermuda, Thailand, Palau, Slovakia, Georgia, Montenegro, Aruba. Outside Europe (regions per UN M49): 15 of the 45 (China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand, Georgia, Cuba, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, Curacao, Aruba, Dominica, Bermuda, Palau); 14 of the 25 newcomers. COVID caveat: the count was 34 in 2019, rose to 43 in 2020 and peaked at 49 in 2021 (48 in 2022) (Interpretation: pandemic deaths added to the toll), then eased to 45 in 2023. It stays 11 above 2019 and 25 above 2013, so the shift is not a pandemic blip. In WPP 2024, Uruguay is just below the line in 2023 (0.99); national registers (plate 247) show deaths ahead. UN projections for 2024-2026 count 46, 47 and 49 countries (Forecast, not used in the headline). WPP values are model-based estimates that blend registration, census and survey data; small countries and areas move with a few hundred events. Counts and ratios are progrss calculations; map hover shows deaths divided by births in 2023.