34 countries and territories are past their population peak

Claim types Estimate · Interpretation

UN DESA Population Division, World Population Prospects 2024, indicator 49 'Total population by sex' (both sexes, 1 July), read on the UN Data Portal API (population.un.org/dataportalapi/api/v1, sourceId 27, median variant) on 3 Nov 2026. WPP 2024 gives estimates for 1950–2023 and projections from 2024, so the last estimate year, 2023, is used; 2024 projections are not. Method (progrss): for each of the 236 countries and areas the UN reports, peak = highest 1 July population 1950–2023; a country is 'past its peak' if its 2023 population is below that peak. Map value = 2023 population as % change from the peak (0 = at its peak in 2023). Yellow = the 33 countries and territories of over 1 million people below their peak (Hong Kong, Taiwan and Kosovo included as the UN lists them). Smaller places are shown grey with their value but not counted, so micro-states and islands do not drive the count: 10 on the map are below their peak (Andorra, Dominica, Marshall Islands, Montenegro −0.1%, Palau, St Kitts and Nevis, San Marino, Tonga, Tuvalu, St Vincent), and 20 territories not on the map are too, among them Puerto Rico (3.24 M, −15.0%), the only one over a million. 2023 population / peak (year): China 1,422.58 M / 1,426.44 M (2021); Russia 145.44 / 149.45 (1991); Japan 124.37 / 128.19 (2009); Thailand 71.70 / 71.74 (2022); Italy 59.50 / 60.66 (2014); South Korea 51.75 / 51.86 (2020); Ukraine 37.73 / 52.35 (1993); Nepal 29.69 / 29.72 (2022); Venezuela 28.30 / 30.77 (2016); Taiwan 23.32 / 23.67 (2019); Romania 19.12 / 22.95 (1991); Cuba 11.02 / 11.30 (2012); Portugal 10.43 / 10.58 (2010); Greece 10.24 / 11.12 (2010); Hungary 9.69 / 10.70 (1980); Belarus 9.12 / 10.24 (1993); Hong Kong 7.44 / 7.49 (2020); Bulgaria 6.80 / 8.99 (1988); Serbia 6.77 / 7.89 (1987); Lebanon 5.77 / 6.47 (2015); Croatia 3.90 / 4.84 (1990); Georgia 3.81 / 5.50 (1988); Uruguay 3.39 / 3.40 (2020); Bosnia and Herzegovina 3.19 / 4.46 (1991); Moldova 3.07 / 4.46 (1991); Armenia 2.94 / 3.61 (1991); Lithuania 2.85 / 3.70 (1991); Albania 2.81 / 3.28 (1991); Latvia 1.88 / 2.66 (1989); North Macedonia 1.83 / 2.09 (2005); Kosovo 1.70 / 2.20 (1997); Estonia 1.37 / 1.57 (1990); Mauritius 1.27 / 1.29 (2015). Several turns are very recent and very small (Thailand −0.05%, Nepal −0.07%, South Korea −0.2%, China −0.3%, Uruguay −0.3%); in each the UN medium variant shows 2024 lower again. Countries whose 2023 value is their peak (Austria, Czechia, Poland, Slovakia, Spain, Jamaica) are not counted even though the UN projects them lower in 2024. All 63 countries and areas below their peak held 2.131 billion people in 2023, 26.3% of the 8.092 billion world total (sum of the 236 areas); China alone is 17.6%. Nauru is reported by the UN as NRO and mapped to NRU. Global South count (China, Thailand, Nepal, Venezuela, Cuba, Lebanon, Uruguay, Mauritius) is a progrss classification. Shares, sums and changes are progrss calculations. Licence: CC BY 3.0 IGO. Puerto Rico (3.24 million, −15% from its 2001 peak) counts but has no tile on the map. Ukraine's 2023 estimate is very uncertain because of the war.

Published 4 Nov 2026