Chile's fertility rate fell below Italy's and Japan's
Births per woman (total fertility rate), 2003 and 2023, selected large countries, UN estimates.
Births per woman in Chile in 2023, below Italy (1.20) and Japan (1.21), down from 1.89 in 2003.
Chile's drop in twenty years; the Philippines (3.59 to 1.92) and Argentina (2.45 to 1.50) fell as fast or faster.
Countries here were below the replacement rate of 2.1 in 2023, up from 8 in 2003: below-replacement fertility is no longer only a European and East Asian story.
the numbers & method
| 2003 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|
| China | 1.57 | 1.00 |
| India | 3.12 | 1.98 |
| United States | 2.02 | 1.62 |
| Indonesia | 2.41 | 2.13 |
| Pakistan | 4.89 | 3.61 |
| Nigeria | 6.10 | 4.48 |
| Brazil | 2.01 | 1.62 |
| Bangladesh | 3.03 | 2.16 |
| Russia | 1.33 | 1.45 |
| Mexico | 2.58 | 1.91 |
| Japan | 1.29 | 1.21 |
| Philippines | 3.59 | 1.92 |
| Egypt | 3.35 | 2.75 |
| Italy | 1.29 | 1.20 |
| South Korea | 1.20 | 0.72 |
| Chile | 1.89 | 1.17 |
| Argentina | 2.45 | 1.50 |
Claim types Estimate · Interpretation
UN DESA Population Division, World Population Prospects 2024, indicator 19 'Total fertility rate' (live births per woman), median variant, read on the UN Data Portal API (population.un.org/dataportalapi/api/v1) on 3 Nov 2026. WPP 2024 gives estimates for 1950–2023 and projections from 2024, so 2003 and 2023 (twenty years, both estimates) are used. Values 2003 / 2023: China 1.570 / 0.999; India 3.122 / 1.975; United States 2.025 / 1.624; Indonesia 2.410 / 2.127; Pakistan 4.894 / 3.605; Nigeria 6.100 / 4.482; Brazil 2.006 / 1.619; Bangladesh 3.029 / 2.163; Russia 1.334 / 1.449; Mexico 2.579 / 1.910; Japan 1.285 / 1.208; Philippines 3.591 / 1.916; Egypt 3.352 / 2.750; Italy 1.285 / 1.198; South Korea 1.199 / 0.720; Chile 1.885 / 1.167; Argentina 2.451 / 1.500. Chart values rounded to 2 decimals. Rows: 13 of the world's 15 most populous countries in 2023 (Ethiopia and DR Congo not shown) plus Italy, South Korea, Chile and Argentina. Other 2023 values for reference: Spain 1.213, Thailand 1.212, Europe 1.395, Ukraine 0.977. 'Replacement' = about 2.1 births per woman. Changes and counts are progrss calculations. Licence: CC BY 3.0 IGO. Chile first fell below both Italy and Japan in 2021, was briefly above them in 2022, and below again in 2023.
Published 4 Nov 2026
what connects to this
one plate, every morning
The new world, explained in one chart, in your inbox at 7:00, your time. Free.
or follow via rss, the "rss" in progrss