Nine middle-income countries passed peak fossil power, up from two

Claim types Fact · Interpretation

Ember yearly electricity data, electricity generated from fossil fuels (coal, gas and other fossil), TWh, 2000–2025, read from Ember via the progrss vault (vault rule GUIDELINES §4.11: loaded from ember-energy.org, edition 'Ember yearly electricity data, version 5a00e69327'; source ember passes value checks, 3 matches, 0 mismatches). Set: the 36 countries the World Bank classes as lower- or upper-middle income (World Bank API country list) with Ember data for every year 2000–2025 and a fossil peak of at least 5 TWh; low-income countries have no complete series. All 36, shown on the map: Argentina, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Belarus, Bolivia, Brazil, China, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, Indonesia, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Morocco, Moldova, Mexico, North Macedonia, Mongolia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Serbia, Thailand, Tunisia, Türkiye, Uzbekistan, Viet Nam, Kosovo, South Africa. 'Past peak' (progrss calculation): the country's highest yearly fossil generation came in 2020 or earlier (five or more years before 2025) and its 2023–25 average is at least 10% below that peak; for 2015 the same test uses peaks to 2010 and the 2013–15 average. Three-year averages damp wet and dry hydro years. Now (9): Argentina (peak 2016, −16%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (2018, −27%), Belarus (2019, −28%), Brazil (2014, −48%), Ecuador (2014, −32%), Sri Lanka (2019, −26%), North Macedonia (2001, −30%), Serbia (2011, −13%), South Africa (2007, −19%). Then (2): North Macedonia and Moldova; Moldova set a new peak in 2021 and drops out. Pakistan's 2023–25 average is 25% below its 2021 peak and Türkiye's 10% below its 2021 peak, too recent to count. Brazil's fossil power rose again in 2024 and 2025 (63 to 85 TWh) and is still 41% below 2014 in 2025 alone. Map colours: each country's 2023–25 average as a share of its peak; faint squares are countries outside the set. Shares of the 36: the nine made 449 of 10,817 TWh a year in 2023–25 (4.1%). No cause is claimed: falls came alongside new hydro, wind, solar and nuclear, and in some countries economic crises and power shortages.