26 countries produce less per person than in 2013

Claim types Estimate

Penn World Table version 11.0 (Groningen Growth and Development Centre, DataverseNL doi.org/10.34894/FABVLR, version 2.0, released 10 Oct 2025), variables rgdpna (real GDP at constant 2021 national prices) and pop (population, millions), read from the publisher's file via the progrss vault (§4.11, penn-world-table passes value_checks). Output per person = rgdpna / pop for each country, compared with its own value ten years earlier, so prices and exchange rates drop out. Set: the 150 economies with 1 million+ people in 2023 and data for 2003, 2013 and 2023 (smaller economies left out because a few thousand people swing their per-person series). 26 had lower output per person in 2023 than 2013; 13 of the same 150 had lower output in 2013 than 2003. Their combined population is 903 million of 7,956 million in the set (11.3%). Three of the 26 are within 3.5% of flat (Brazil −0.8%, UAE −1.5%, Nigeria −3.2%); 24 fell by more than 2%. Percent changes in the map are progrss calculations. Control: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2026) real GDP growth compounded over ten years against IMF population growth gives the same direction for the 1 million+ set: 15 of 151 in 2013 and 31 of 153 in 2023. PWT values for the latest years are model-based estimates and may be revised; the decade comparison uses real volumes only. No cause is claimed: the 26 include oil exporters, countries in conflict and several of Africa's and Latin America's largest economies. Claim type: Estimate (modelled series with a same-method control). South Sudan is left out (PWT series starts 2008).