Nearly 20 million Shanghai residents live in a flood zone
People in the 100-year coastal flood zone, millions, 1975 and 2025, the ten most exposed cities. Sea walls not modelled.
- 1. China now builds more ships than everyone else combined
- 2. China makes more electricity than the US and EU combined
- 3. China installs more robots than everyone else combined
- 4. China is building half the world's new reactors
- 5. China switched on 80% of the world's new coal power
- 6. China's vehicle exports grew sevenfold in five years
- 7. Six of the world's ten busiest ports are in China
- 8. China completed six in ten of 2025's new skyscrapers
- 9. China has more metro track than the next six combined
- 10. China refines most of the minerals of the future
- 11. China's new housing starts have fallen 74% since 2019
- 12. China is building more power capacity than everyone else combined
- 13. China now emits more CO2 per person than Japan
- 14. Nearly 20 million Shanghai residents live in a flood zone
- 15. Fewer countries owe China more than the World Bank
Shanghai residents in the zone in 2025, up from 4.0 million in 1975: 64% of the city.
in Tokyo, the city best known for this risk, up only a third in 50 years.
most exposed cities are now Chinese. The rise is people moving in: the same flood map is used for every year.
the numbers & method
| 1975 (M) | 2025 (M) | |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai | 4.0 | 19.7 |
| Tokyo | 5.2 | 6.9 |
| Shantou | 1.3 | 5.1 |
| Wenzhou | 2.0 | 3.7 |
| Guangzhou | 0.1 | 3.0 |
| Fuzhou | 0.9 | 2.4 |
| Chattogram | 0.5 | 2.2 |
| Nagoya | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Osaka | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Rotterdam–The Hague | 1.1 | 1.5 |
Claim types Estimate
GHS_UCDB_THEME_EXPOSURE_GLOBE_R2024A V1-2, field EX_CF1_POP: population in the 100-year coastal flood zone (JRC LISFLOOD-FP, 100-year total water level, Vousdoukas et al. 2018) × GHS-POP. One present-day hazard map for every year; flood defences are not modelled, so this is exposure to the hazard, not expected flooding. Urban centres at their 2025 extent for all years. 2025 population modelled (Estimate). Millions, 1975 / 2025 (share of 2025 population): Shanghai 3.980 / 19.675 (64%); Tokyo 5.240 / 6.907 (21%); Shantou 1.326 / 5.060 (48%); Wenzhou 2.003 / 3.652 (95%); Guangzhou 0.107 / 3.029 (7%); Fuzhou 0.873 / 2.441 (85%); Chattogram 0.541 / 2.221 (43%); Nagoya 1.765 / 2.017 (26%); Osaka 1.987 / 1.759 (14%); Rotterdam–The Hague 1.058 / 1.455 (67%). Several large delta cities (Dhaka, Kolkata, Ho Chi Minh City) show near-zero coastal exposure in this model, likely a resolution limit. CC BY 4.0.
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