Kyoto's cherry blossoms now peak earliest in 1,200 years
Average full-bloom day of Kyoto's mountain cherries by century, 812–2026. Lower means earlier in spring.
In 2020–2026 full bloom came on day 90 (31 March) on average, against day 105 (15 April) before 1900.
The earliest full bloom in 838 recorded years. 26 March 2021 is the second earliest.
The earliest pre-modern bloom (27 March 1409) has been beaten twice in this decade.
the numbers
| Year | Average full-bloom day | Earliest year in period |
|---|---|---|
| 800 | 102.9 | 92.0 |
| 900 | 101.2 | 87.0 |
| 1000 | 104.9 | 92.0 |
| 1100 | 107.1 | 90.0 |
| 1200 | 104.2 | 87.0 |
| 1300 | 104.9 | 88.0 |
| 1400 | 102.6 | 86.0 |
| 1500 | 106.8 | 93.0 |
| 1600 | 105.8 | 87.0 |
| 1700 | 105.8 | 89.0 |
| 1800 | 106.3 | 93.0 |
| 1900 | 101.0 | 88.0 |
| 2000 | 95.7 | 89.0 |
| 2020 | 90.0 | 84.0 |
source notes & method
838 years with a recorded date, 812–2026 (gaps in early centuries: e.g. only 14 dates in the 800s). Series retrieved from a secondary cleaned copy of the Aono record (randalolson.com/assets/2026/04/kyoto-sakura-1200-years.csv), not from the original dataset. 2026 set to day 89 (30 March) per JMA Kyoto; the copy shows day 88. Period averages and earliest years are progrss calculations; the last two points cover 2000–2019 and 2020–2026, not full centuries. Pre-modern dates come from diaries and chronicles and are less precise than modern observations.
Published 3 Nov 2026
what connects to this
one plate, every morning
The new world, explained in one chart, in your inbox at 7:00, your time. Free.
or follow via rss, the "rss" in progrss