GitHub developers grew fastest in poorer countries, led by Nigeria

Claim types Estimate · Interpretation

Estimate, platform-reported (§4.8): GitHub Innovation Graph, 'developers' by economy, fourth-quarter values for 2020 and 2025, as published by GitHub (geography is GitHub's own IP-based assignment of accounts; it counts accounts that pushed code, not employed programmers; a developer account can be a student, hobbyist or automated user). Read from the GitHub Innovation Graph files via the progrss vault (§4.11, github-innovation passes value_checks: 3 matches, 0 mismatches). Income: World Bank WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD, GDP per capita PPP (current international $), latest year 2022 to 2025 per country (2025 for 121 countries, 2024 for UAE and Lebanon, 2022 for Syria), read from the World Bank API via the progrss vault. Set (defined before looking at the result): the 123 countries with at least 10,000 GitHub developers in Q4 2020 and a WDI income value; Taiwan, Venezuela, Cuba and Yemen have 10,000+ developers but no WDI income value for 2022 or later and are left out (Yemen 7.6×, Taiwan 3.4×, Venezuela 3.1×, Cuba 2.8×; none changes the result). Each dot's y value is developers in 2025 divided by developers in 2020 (progrss calculation). Groups, set in advance: income under $10,000 (22 countries: Ethiopia, Nigeria, Rwanda, Madagascar, Pakistan, Cameroon, Cambodia, Kyrgyz Republic, Kenya, Ghana, Uganda, Cote d'Ivoire, Tanzania, Nepal, Senegal, Zimbabwe, Honduras, Nicaragua, Syria, West Bank and Gaza, Sudan, Myanmar), $10,000 to $40,000 (48), over $40,000 (53). Median growth 4.85× (under $10,000), 3.82× ($10,000 to $40,000), 2.94× (over $40,000). Combined developers: 1,382,750 to 7,179,426 (5.2×) in the lowest group; 31,974,277 to 92,358,229 (2.9×) in the highest; all 123 countries: 56.2 million to 175.3 million, 4.1% of which is the lowest group in 2025. Correlation (progrss calculation, analyse.py, descriptive): Pearson r = -0.55 (log income against log growth), Spearman -0.57, 123 countries; dropping any one country gives r between -0.58 and -0.53; r is -0.55 as well with growth on a linear scale. A link, not a cause: faster growth from a small base is normal for any count, and GitHub sign-ups are also influenced by platform policy and tools. Hong Kong (5.8×, income over $40,000) and Uzbekistan (8.5×) sit well above the line; China (1.6×) well below. The figures are not a measure of programmers employed. Claim type: Estimate (GitHub's own IP-based counts; the vault labels them Estimate; income is Fact); the correlation and group medians are progrss calculations; takeaway 3 is an Interpretation. Ceiling test (§13): without the 21 countries at the 10,000–20,000 floor in 2020, Spearman −0.59 (n=102); within bands of similar 2020 size, −0.51 (10k–50k, n=50), −0.56 (50k–200k, n=29), −0.52 (200k–1M, n=33), −0.60 (over 1M, n=11); holding 2020 size constant, partial Spearman −0.53. Among the 53 countries over $40,000 alone the link is flat (−0.06): the pattern is the gap between poorer and richer countries. GitHub's series starts in Q1 2020, so Q4 2020 is the earliest year-end base; the comparison is across countries, so a platform-wide 2020 effect does not drive the pattern. Later quarters to Q2 2026 (Nigeria 1.96 million, 7.7× its Q4 2020 level; China 1.7×) widen the gap. Fit line: least squares of growth on log10 income, r = −0.55. Live re-read of GitHub's developers.csv matched the vault.