Indonesia set to use more palm oil than it exports
Indonesia's palm oil used at home vs exported, million tonnes, 2005/06–2026/27; USDA estimates and 2026/27 forecast.
Indonesia's forecast palm oil use at home in 2026/27, above forecast exports of 21.6 Mt as output dips to 45.0 Mt.
Home use is forecast at six times its 2005/06 level, while exports are 6.7 Mt below their 2018/19 peak of 28.3 Mt.
Indonesia's forecast share of world palm oil exports in 2026/27, down from 51.8%: the top seller keeps more at home.
the numbers & method
| Year | used at home (Mt) | exports (Mt) |
|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 3.9 | 11.7 |
| 2006 | 4.2 | 11.4 |
| 2007 | 4.6 | 14.0 |
| 2008 | 4.9 | 16.0 |
| 2009 | 5.5 | 16.6 |
| 2010 | 6.2 | 16.4 |
| 2011 | 6.9 | 18.5 |
| 2012 | 7.8 | 20.4 |
| 2013 | 9.0 | 21.7 |
| 2014 | 7.1 | 26.0 |
| 2015 | 9.1 | 22.9 |
| 2016 | 9.1 | 27.6 |
| 2017 | 11.6 | 27.0 |
| 2018 | 13.5 | 28.3 |
| 2019 | 14.6 | 26.2 |
| 2020 | 15.7 | 27.3 |
| 2021 | 17.4 | 22.3 |
| 2022 | 19.1 | 28.1 |
| 2023 | 21.1 | 22.3 |
| 2024 | 22.4 | 23.5 |
| 2025 | 23.2 | 23.8 |
| 2026 | 23.7 | 21.6 |
Claim types Estimate · Forecast · Interpretation
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service PSD database, commodity 4243000 'Oil, Palm', Indonesia, attributes 'Domestic consumption' and 'Exports', thousand tonnes, read on the USDA FAS PSD API (api.fas.usda.gov/api/psd) on 4 Nov 2026, October 2026 release. Years are USDA local marketing years (2026 on the chart = 2026/27). 2025/26 is a USDA estimate and 2026/27 a USDA forecast, not final data. Home use / exports, thousand tonnes: 2005/06 3,930 / 11,696; 2018/19 13,485 / 28,279 (export peak); 2024/25 22,375 / 23,471; 2025/26 23,225 / 23,800; 2026/27 23,725 / 21,600. Home use stays below exports in every year up to 2025/26: the crossing is in the forecast year only. World palm oil exports 2026/27 forecast: 43,747 thousand tonnes. Multiples, gaps and shares are progrss calculations; takeaway 3's second clause is an interpretation. Public domain (US government data). Production: 2025/26 46,700, 2026/27 forecast 45,000 thousand tonnes, so much of the forecast crossing comes from lower output. Indonesia's share of world exports 2025/26: 23,800 / 45,967 = 51.8%. 2014/15 home use (7,065) is USDA's published value.
Published 4 Nov 2026
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