Foreign debt payments now top foreign investment in 87 countries
Debt service on external debt vs net foreign direct investment inflows, 117 low- and middle-income countries, 2014 and 2024.
- 1. Central banks now hold more gold than Treasuries or euros
- 2. China now pays the world mostly in yuan
- 3. Migrants now send home four times all foreign aid
- 4. Tether now holds more US Treasuries than the UAE
- 5. Developing countries' interest bill has nearly tripled since 2010
- 6. Poles edge past the Japanese in income per person
- 7. In dollars, Nigeria's economy has more than halved since 2014
- 8. Argentina's monthly inflation fell from 25.5% to 1.9%
- 9. Guyana now produces more per person than America
- 10. Ukraine received four times the aid of any other country
- 11. Singapore now draws twice as much foreign investment as China
- 12. 22 governments now owe more than a year's national output
- 13. Money sent home to Guatemala nearly quadrupled in ten years
- 14. In purchasing power, Russia's economy is now bigger than Japan's
- 15. Colombians abroad now send home more than foreigners invest
- 16. 72 countries now pay China more than it lends them
- 17. Pakistan rose to first place in Chinese energy finance
- 18. Money sent home now tops half of Tajikistan's economy
- 19. Pakistan passed India in tech's share of services exports
- 20. Mongolia leapt from 2% to 58% paying utilities by phone
- 21. Smaller currencies' share of world reserves has more than doubled
- 22. Phone savers now outnumber bank savers in 32 countries
- 23. Uzbekistan now receives more than twice Ukraine's remittances
- 24. Fewer countries owe China more than the World Bank
- 25. Poorer countries now owe Saudi Arabia more than America
- 26. Cambodia's bank lending grew from 8% to 121% of GDP
- 27. Egypt tripled its ATMs per adult in ten years
- 28. Bank branches are past their peak in most countries
- 29. Guinea rose from 17th to second for investment in Africa
- 30. Navoi doubled its share of Uzbekistan's economy in ten years
- 31. Turkmenistan has paid back almost all it owed China
- 32. Foreign debt payments now top foreign investment in 87 countries
Countries that paid more on their foreign debt in 2024 than they received in new foreign investment, up from 57 in 2014.
Among them Brazil, Colombia, Viet Nam, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Zambia and Senegal; only Egypt, Guinea and the Gambia left the group.
Counting only countries with positive investment both years (50 in 2014): creditors were paid more than investors brought in for most of them.
the numbers & method
| Country | Value (bn) |
|---|---|
| CHN | 309.85 |
| TUR | 77.91 |
| RUS | 66.20 |
| IND | 64.48 |
| IDN | 52.48 |
| KAZ | 44.29 |
| BRA | 40.02 |
| ARG | 27.12 |
| MEX | 21.50 |
| ZAF | 20.23 |
| COL | 20.15 |
| PAK | 13.64 |
| VNM | 13.42 |
| AGO | 11.98 |
| NGA | 11.84 |
| SLV | 10.53 |
| UZB | 8.63 |
| PHL | 8.61 |
| PER | 8.52 |
| ECU | 8.03 |
| BGD | 7.32 |
| MAR | 7.15 |
| UKR | 6.36 |
| PNG | 6.08 |
| KEN | 4.89 |
| TUN | 4.75 |
| SRB | 4.74 |
| BGR | 4.27 |
| LKA | 4.05 |
| AZE | 3.95 |
| THA | 3.69 |
| BLR | 3.60 |
| GEO | 3.21 |
| JOR | 2.87 |
| MNG | 2.64 |
| CIV | 2.27 |
| JAM | 2.15 |
| DOM | 2.13 |
| ARM | 1.71 |
| ZMB | 1.55 |
| BOL | 1.48 |
| HND | 1.13 |
| BFA | 1.09 |
| MOZ | 1.03 |
| MUS | 0.98 |
| GHA | 0.96 |
| ZWE | 0.95 |
| PRY | 0.87 |
| LAO | 0.84 |
| GAB | 0.81 |
| CMR | 0.79 |
| BEN | 0.75 |
| LBN | 0.72 |
| MDA | 0.68 |
| MNE | 0.64 |
| KGZ | 0.56 |
| HTI | 0.52 |
| BIH | 0.49 |
| MKD | 0.49 |
| COG | 0.48 |
| NPL | 0.48 |
| NIC | 0.47 |
| TCD | 0.36 |
| TKM | 0.29 |
| TJK | 0.28 |
| TZA | 0.26 |
| SDN | 0.20 |
| BTN | 0.16 |
| TGO | 0.14 |
| YEM | 0.14 |
| SEN | 0.12 |
| LSO | 0.10 |
| GTM | 0.09 |
| DJI | 0.07 |
| SWZ | 0.07 |
| TON | 0.06 |
| CPV | 0.04 |
| FJI | 0.04 |
| SLE | 0.03 |
| WSM | 0.03 |
| CAF | 0.02 |
| COM | 0.02 |
| NER | 0.02 |
| DMA | 0.01 |
| ERI | 0.01 |
| GNB | 0.01 |
| BDI | 0.00 |
| BLZ | 0.00 |
| SLB | -0.01 |
| VUT | -0.02 |
| STP | -0.03 |
| VCT | -0.10 |
| LCA | -0.11 |
| GRD | -0.12 |
| MMR | -0.14 |
| RWA | -0.14 |
| GMB | -0.16 |
| MWI | -0.17 |
| TLS | -0.20 |
| BWA | -0.30 |
| MDV | -0.30 |
| MDG | -0.31 |
| LBR | -0.33 |
| XKX | -0.48 |
| MLI | -0.55 |
| SOM | -0.75 |
| ALB | -0.84 |
| DZA | -0.85 |
| GIN | -0.96 |
| KHM | -0.99 |
| MRT | -1.03 |
| IRN | -1.09 |
| UGA | -1.56 |
| COD | -2.44 |
| ETH | -2.67 |
| GUY | -8.03 |
| EGY | -13.67 |
Claim types Fact
World Bank, World Development Indicators (edition 2026-10-08): DT.TDS.DECT.CD, debt service on external debt, total (TDS, current US$; principal and interest on long-term debt, IMF charges and interest on short-term debt), from International Debt Statistics; and BX.KLT.DINV.CD.WD, foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV.CD.WD). Read from the World Bank API via the progrss vault (wb-wdi; GUIDELINES §4.11). Descriptive join, progrss calculation, no link claimed: a country is counted when its debt service in a year is larger than its FDI net inflows in the same year, among the same 117 low- and middle-income countries with both series in 2014 and 2024 (International Debt Statistics covers low- and middle-income countries only). 57 in 2014, 87 in 2024. 33 joined: Azerbaijan, Burundi, Benin, Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Cameroon, Congo Rep., Colombia, Comoros, Cabo Verde, Djibouti, Fiji, Gabon, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Honduras, Haiti, Jordan, Lao PDR, Lesotho, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Sudan, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Turkmenistan, Tonga, Tanzania, Viet Nam, Samoa, Zambia. 3 left: Egypt, Guinea, the Gambia. Net FDI inflows can be negative (investors withdrawing): negative in 6 countries in 2024 (Angola, Burkina Faso, Papua New Guinea, Russia, Tonga, Yemen); Sudan's 2024 inflow is US$4,700, down from US$548m in 2023. Counting only the 109 countries with positive inflows in both years: 50 then 80. With a floor of US$0.1 bn debt service in both years (86 countries): 50 then 72. Count by year: 57, 62, 68, 67, 78, 82, 88 (2020), 80, 80, 84, 87. Debt service is gross (principal and interest); new borrowing is not netted out. Examples, US$ bn, debt service vs FDI, 2014 then 2024: Nigeria 2.37 vs 4.69, then 13.46 vs 1.61; Brazil 62.25 vs 87.71, then 114.11 vs 74.09; Viet Nam 6.84 vs 9.20, then 33.59 vs 20.17. China's total includes interest on short-term debt. Debt service data end in 2024. Map value: debt service minus FDI net inflows, US$ bn, 2024.
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