Ukraine sells a fifth less grain than before the war

Trade-year exports, thousand tonnes in the source, shown in million tonnes: wheat July/June, corn October/September. Total = progrss sum of the two crops for the same-named season. 2022/23 to 2026/27 are from the October 2026 circular (2025/26 is USDA's latest estimate; 2026/27 the October 2026 WASDE forecast). 2019/20 to 2021/22 are from the November 2023 circular (https://www.fas.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2025-05/2023-Nov-Grain.pdf), the latest USDA edition that still lists those seasons. Chart years are the season's end year (2022 = 2021/22). The 2021/22 season started before the February 2022 invasion and is used as the pre-war baseline; 2019/20 was higher still (49.9 Mt). '-21%' = 36,341 / 45,824 - 1; 'a quarter' = 35,770 / 48,065 - 1 = -25.6%. Argentina comparison mixes one crop with two and uses forecasts. The 2021/22 seasons include the first months of the war; the average of the two fully pre-war seasons (2019/20 and 2020/21: 49.9 and 40.7 Mt, mean 45.3 Mt) gives the same 'a fifth less' (36.3 / 45.3 - 1 = -20%). Checker verified the November 2023 circular's column order: its extracted PDF text runs seasons right-to-left (US corn 42,833 is 2022/23, 47,035 is 2019/20), and the values used here follow the correct mapping (Ukraine wheat 21,016 / 16,851 / 18,844 and corn 28,929 / 23,864 / 26,980 for 2019/20, 2020/21, 2021/22).

Published 3 Nov 2026