Two in three people live where fertility is below replacement

Derived by progrss from the UN's country file (WPP2024 Demographic Indicators, medium variant, downloaded from population.un.org on 3 Nov 2026): for each year, the 1 July population of every country or area whose total fertility rate (TFR) is below 2.1, divided by the total of all 233 countries and areas (which sums to 99.6% of the UN world total). A whole country counts as below replacement when its national TFR is below 2.1. UN estimates run to 2023; 2024–2100 are UN medium-variant projections (Forecast). Using the net reproduction rate below 1, a stricter replacement test, gives a similar 71% in 2023. Cross-checks against UN headline figures: world TFR 2.25 in 2024; 127 of 233 countries below 2.1 in 2024. Jumps: China's TFR fell from 2.51 (1990) to 1.93 (1991); India's from 2.12 (2019) to 2.05 (2020). 1990 23.3% → 1991 44.9%; 2019 48.7% → 2020 67.8%. Interpretation: the slow fall from the 2030s to the 2070s is because below-replacement countries shrink while higher-fertility countries keep growing; the share climbs again as Pakistan, Nigeria, Ethiopia and others cross below 2.1 between 2071 and 2080.

Published 3 Nov 2026