One in ten in Japan will be foreign by 2070
Foreign nationals as a share of Japan's population, 2020 and IPSS 2023 projections to 2070.
Japan's foreign population share is projected to rise almost fivefold between 2020 and 2070.
Foreign nationals projected in 2070, out of a total population of 87.0 million.
The foreign population grows from 2.75 million in 2020 to 9.39 million, while the total shrinks by about a third.
the numbers
| Year | Foreign share of population (%) |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 2.2 |
| 2030 | 3.5 |
| 2040 | 5.2 |
| 2050 | 7.0 |
| 2060 | 8.8 |
| 2070 | 10.8 |
source notes & method
Figures from an IPSS slide deck hosted by the Immigration Services Agency, citing IPSS's 2023 projections (published April 2023). The deck does not name the scenario; the 2070 total of 86,996 thousand matches the IPSS medium-fertility, medium-mortality projection, which assumes net foreign inflow of about 164,000 a year. 2020 is the census base; 2030–2070 are projections. Multiples are derived. 'Foreign population' here is the IPSS definition, which differs from the ISA count of foreign residents.
Published 3 Nov 2026
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